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List of Publications

Here we are listing our recent publications. Feel free to request a copy of our manuscript (In press, 2014, 2013, 2012).

In press

  1. Venter, O., Fuller, R.A., Segan, D.B., Carwardine, J., Brooks, T., Butchart, S.H.M, Di Marco, M., O’Grady, D., Iwamura, T., Joseph, L.N., Possingham, H.P., Smith, R.J., Rondinini, C., Venter, M., Watson, J.E.M. (In Press; accepted 2014). Targeting global protected area expansion for imperiled biodiversity. PLoS Biology
  2. Watts, M.E., Stewart, R.S., Martin, T.G., Klein, C.J., Carwardine, J., Possingham, H.P. (in press;Accepted December 2013). Conservation Planning with Marxan. In Learning landscape ecology: a practical guide to concepts and techniques. eds S. Gergel, M.G. Turner.
  3. Martin, T.G., Carwardine, J., Broadhurst, L.M., Ferrier, S., James, C., Sheppard, A., Whitten, S., Chades, I. (In press; Accepted 2013). Tools for managing and restoring biodiversity, In Conserving Biodiversity. ed. S. Morton. CSIRO publishing.
  4. Sheppard, A. Carwardine J., Ferrier, S. (In press; Accepted 2013). Managing Australia’s protected areas, In Conserving Biodiversity. ed. S. Morton. CSIRO publishing.
  5. Mayfield, M. M., Dwyer, J. M., Main, A., Levine, J. M. (In press; Accepted 05/2014). Germination strategies of widespread annual plants are unrelated to regional climate. Global Ecology and Biogeography.
  6. Chades, I., Chapron, G., Cros, M-J., Garcia, F., Sabbadin R. (In press; Accepted 02/05/2014) MDPtoolbox: a multi-platform toolbox to solve stochastic dynamic programming problems. Ecography.
  7. Fensham, R., Silcock, J., and Firn J. (In press; Accepted 13/08/2013). Managed livestock grazing is compatible with the maintenance of plant diversity in semi-desert grasslands, Ecological Applications.
  8. Borer, E., Harpole, W.S., Gruner, D, Hillebrand, H., Lind, E, Adler, P, Alberti, J, Anderson, T.M, Bakker, J.D, Biederman, L., Blumenthal, D, Brown, C.S., Brudvig, L.A., Cadotte, M., Chu, Chengjin, Cleland, E.E., Crawley, M, Daleo, P., Damschen, E.I., Davies, K., DeCrappeo, N.M., Du, G., Firn, J, Hautier, Y., Heckman, R.W., Hector, A., HilleRisLambers, J., Iribarne, O. Knops, J.M.H, La Pierre, K.J., Li, Wei, MacDougall, A.S., McCulley, R, Melbourne, B., Mitchell, C.E., Moore, J.L., Mortensen, B., O’Halloran, L.R., Orrock, J., Pascual, J., Prober, S.M., Pyke, D.A., Risch, A.C., Schuetz, M., Smith, M.D., Stevens, C., Sullivan, L., Williams, R.J., Wragg, P.D., Wright, J.P., Yang, L. and Seabloom, E. (In press; Accepted 12/02/14) Herbivores and nutrients control grassland plant diversity via light limitation. Nature.
  9. Hautier, Y., E. W. Seabloom, E. T. Borer, P. B. Adler, W. S. Harpole, H. Hillebrand, E. M. Lind, A. S. MacDougall, C. Stevens, J. D. Bakker, Y. Buckley, C. Chu, S. L. Collins, P. Daleo, E. I. Damschen, K. Davies, P. A. Fay, J. Firn, D.S. Gruner, V. L. Jin, J. A. Klein, J. M. H. Knops, K. J. La Pierre, W. Li, R. L. McCulley, B. Melbourne, J. L. Moore, L. R. O’Halloran, S. M. Prober, A. C. Risch, M. Sankaran, M. Schuetz, and A. Hector. (In press; accepted 10/01/14). Eutrophication weakens stabilizing effects of diversity in natural grasslands, Nature.
  10. MacDougall, A.S., J. R. Bennett, J. Firn, E. W. Seabloom, E. T. Borer, E. M. Lind, J. L. Orrock, W. S. Harpole, Y. Hautier, P. B. Adler, E. Cleland, K. Davies, B. Melbourne, S. M. Prober, J. D. Bakker, P. A. Fay, V. L. Jin, A. Kendig, K. J. La Pierre, J. L Moore, J. Morgan, and C. J. Stevens.(In press; accepted 12/01/14). Regional-scale factors most consistently explain plot-level diversity in invaded systems, Global Ecology and Biogeography.
  11. Muller, J., Loh, S. Cameron, S. and Firn J. (In press) Diverse urban plantings designed with strong ecological principles can increase ecosystem services in inner city buildings. Frontiers in Plant Science.
  12. Adams, V., Álvarez-Romero, J., Carwardine, J., Cattarino, L., Hermoso, V., Kennard, M., Linke, S., Pressey, R., Stoeckl, N. (In press; accepted 30/12/2013). Planning across freshwater and terrestrial realms: co-benefits and tradeoffs between conservation actions. Conservation Letters DOI: 10.1111/conl.12080
  13. Flockhart, D. T. T., Pichancourt, J.-B., Norris, D. R., Martin, T. G. (2014), Unravelling the annual cycle in a migratory animal: breeding-season habitat loss drives population declines of monarch butterflies. Journal of Animal Ecology. doi: 10.1111/1365-2656.12253 (PDF)
  14. Raghu, S., Osunkoya, O. O., Perrett, C., & Pichancourt, J. B. (2014). Historical demography of Lantana camara L. reveals clues about the influence of land use and weather in the management of this widespread invasive species. Basic and Applied Ecology. DOI: 10.1016/j.baae.2014.08.006 (PDF)


  1. Carwardine J, Nicol S, van Leeuwen S, Walters B, Firn J, Reeson A, Martin TG, Chades I (2014) Priority threat management for Pilbara species of conservation significance, CSIRO Ecosystems Sciences, Brisbane. (PDF) (see The Conversation article, blog post, CSIRO website)
  2. Dwyer, J. M., Hobbs, R. J., and Mayfield, M. M. (2014). Specific leaf area responses to environmental gradients through space and time. Ecology 95:399-410
  3. Fensham, R. J., Bouchard, D. L., Catterall, C. P. and Dwyer, J. M. (2014). Do local moisture stress responses across tree species reflect dry limits of their geographic ranges? Austral Ecology. DOI: 10.1111/aec.12125 (online early view)
  4. Ponce-Reyes, R., Clegg, S., Carvahlo, S., McDonald-Madden, E., Possingham, H. (2014) Geographic surrogates of genetic variation for selecting islands for conservation. Diversity and Distributions. 20: 640-651 DOI 10.1111/ddi.12195 (see blog post)
  5. Grechi I., Chadès I., Buckley Y., Friedel M., Grice A.C., Possingham H.P., van Klinken R.D. & Martin T.G. (2014). A decision framework for management of conflicting production and biodiversity goals for a commercially valuable invasive species. Agric. Sys., 125, 1-11. (see blog post)
  6. Pichancourt, J.-B., Firn, J., Chadès, I. and Martin, T. G. (2014), Growing biodiverse carbon-rich forests. Global Change Biology, 20: 382–393. doi: 10.1111/gcb.12345 (PDF) (blog post)
  7. Mills, M., Nicol, S., Wells, J., Lahoz-Manfort, J., Wintle, B., Wardrop, M., Walshe, T., Probert, W., Runge, M., Possingham, H., McDonald-Madden, E. (2014). Minimising the costs of keeping your options open. Conservation biology. DOI: 10.1111/cobi.12238
  8. Nicol, S., Griffith, B., Roach, J. (2014). Optimal water depth management on river-fed National Wildlife Refuges in a changing climate. Climatic Change. DOI: 10.1007/s10584-013-1033-8 (see blog post)
  9. Nguyen, H. Lamb, D., Herbhon, J. and Firn, J (2014) Designing mixed species tree plantations for the tropics: balancing ecological attributes of species with landholder preferences in the Philippines, PloS One, vol. 9, issue 3, e95267
  10. Mantyka-Pringle, C.S., T.G. Martin, D.B. Moffatt, S. Linke, and J.R. Rhodes. (2014) Understanding and Predicting the Combined Effects of Climate Change and Land-Use Change on Freshwater Macroinvertebrates and Fish. Journal of Applied Ecology doi: 10.1111/1365-2664.12236 (see blog post)


  1. Guisan, A., Tingley, R., Baumgartner, J.B., Naujokaitis-Lewis, I., Sutcliffe, P.R., Tulloch, A.I.T., Regan, T.J., Brotons, L., McDonald-Madden, E., Mantyka-Pringle, C., Martin, T.G., Rhodes, J.R., Maggini, R., Setterfield, S.A., Elith, J., Schwartz, M.W., Wintle, B.A., Broennimann, O., Austin, M., Ferrier, S., Kearney, M.R., Possingham, H.P., Buckley, Y.M. (2013). Predicting species distributions for conservation decisions. EcologyLetters. doi: 10.1111/ele.12189 (blog post)
  2. Firn, J., Martin, T.G., Walters, B., Hayes, J., Nicol, S., Chadès, I., and Carwardine, J. (2013) Priority Threat Management of invasive plants species in the Lake Eyre Basin. CSIRO Climate Adaptation Flagship Working Paper No. 17 (QUT and CSIRO) (PDF) (blog post)
  3. Nicol, S., Iwamura T., Buffet O., & Chadès, I. (2013) Adaptive management of migratory birds under sea level rise. The 23rd International Joint Conference on Artificial Intelligence (IJCAI-13), Beijing China. (PDF) (East Asian-Australasian Flyway data access)
  4. Marescot L., Chapron G., Chadès I., Fackler P.L., Duchamp C., Marboutin E. & Gimenez, O. (2013) Complex decisions made simple: a primer on stochastic dynamic programming. Methods in Ecology and Evolution, 4: 872–884. doi: 10.1111/2041-210X.12082
  5. Iwamura, T., Possingham, H.P., Chadès, I., Minton, C., Murray, N., Rogers, D., Treml, E. & Fuller, R. (2013) Migration magnifies the impact of sea level rise on coastal shorebirds. Proceedings of the Royal Society of London B Biological Sciences, vol. 280 no. 1761 20130325 (blog post)
  6. Tulloch, A.I.T., Chadès, I. & Possingham, H.P. (2013) Accounting for complementarity maximizes monitoring power for species management. Conservation Biology, 27: 988–999. doi: 10.1111/cobi.12092 (blog post, decision point article)
  7. Harris, S., Arnall, S., Byrne, M., Coates, D., Hayward, M., Martin, T., Mitchell, N., Garnett, S. (2013) Whose backyard? Some precautions in choosing recipient sites for assisted colonisation of Australian plants and animals. Ecological Management & Restoration. 14:106-111
  8. Lentini, P.E., Gibbons, P., Carwardine, J., Fischer, J., Drielsma, M., Martin, T.G. (2013) The effect of planning for connectivity on linear reserve networks. Conservation Biology. 27: 796-807 DOI: 10.1111/cobi.12060
  9. Lunt, I.D., Byrne, M., Hellmann, J.J., Mitchell, N.J., Garnett, S.T., Hayward, M.W., Martin, T.G., McDonald-Madden, E., Williams, S.E., Zandere, K.K. (2013) Using assisted colonisation to conserve biodiversity and restore ecosystem function under climate change. Biological Conservation 157: 172-177
  10. Martin, T.G., Arcese, P., Kuhnert, P.M., Gaston, A.J., Martin, J-L. (2013) Prior information reduces uncertainty about the consequences of deer overabundance on forest birds. Biological Conservation 165:10-17
  11. Nicol, S., Roach, J., Griffith, B. (2013) Spatial heterogeneity in statistical power to detect changes in lake area in Alaskan National Wildlife Refuges. Landscape Ecology 28: 507-517.
  12. Schwartz, M., Martin, T.G. (2013) Translocation of imperiled species under changing climates. Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences 1286:15-28
  13. Tulloch, A. I. T., Possingham, H. P., Joseph, L. N., Szabo, J. & Martin, T. G. (2013) Realising the full potential of citizen science monitoring programs. Biological Conservation 165:128-138
  14. Polglase PJ, Reeson A, Hawkins CS, Paul KI, Siggins AW, Turner J, Crawford D, Jovanovic T, Hobbs TJ, Opie K, Carwardine J & Almeida A. (2013) Potential for forest carbon plantings to offset greenhouse emissions in Australia: Economics and constraints to implementation. Climate Change. (Published online August 2013)
  15. Flockhart, D. T., Wassenaar, L. I., Martin, T. G., Hobson, K. A., Wunder, M. B., & Norris, D. R. (2013). Tracking multi-generational colonization of the breeding grounds by monarch butterflies in eastern North America. Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences280(1768).
  16. Rout, T. M., McDonald-Madden, E., Martin, T. G., Mitchell, N. J., Possingham, H. P., & Armstrong, D. P. (2013). How to Decide Whether to Move Species Threatened by Climate Change. PloS one8(10), e75814.
  17. Ponce-Reyes, R., Nicholson, E., Baxter, P., Fuller, R., Possingham, H. (2013) Extinction risk in cloud forest fragments under climate change and habitat loss. Diversity and Distributions. Special Issue: Risks, Decisions and Biological Conservation. 19, 518–529 (blog post)


  1. Carwardine, J., O’Connor, T., Legge, S., Mackey, B., Possingham, H.P., Martin, T.G. (2012). Prioritizing threat management for biodiversity conservation. Conservation Letters. 5:196–204
  2. Chadès, I., Sabbadin, R., Carwardine, J., Martin, T.G., Nicol, S., Buffet, O. (2012) MOMDPs: a Solution for Modelling Adaptive Management Problems. Twenty-Sixth AAAI Conference of the Association for the Advancement of Artificial Intelligence ( (AAAI-12) July 22 – 26, Toronto, Canada. Outstanding paper award. (PDF)
  3. Chadès, I., Curtis, J.M.R., Martin, T.G. (2012) Setting realistic recovery targets for interacting endangered species. Conservation Biology 26:1016-25. doi: 10.1111/j.1523-1739.2012.01951 (blog post)
  4. Dunlop, M., Hilbert, D., Ferrier, S., House, A., Liedloff, A., Prober, S.M., Smyth, A., Martin, T.G., Harwood, T., Williams, K., Fletcher, C., Murphy, H., 2013. The implications of climate change for biodiversity conservation and the National Reserve System: Final synthesis, ed. W. Report prepared for the Department of Sustainability Environment, Population and Communities, Canberra. CSIRO Climate Adaptation Flagship, Canberra.
  5. Flockhart, D.T.., Martin, T.G., Norris, D.R. (2012) Experimental Examination of Intraspecific Density-dependent Competition during the Breeding Period in Monarch Butterflies (Danaus plexippus). PLoS ONE 7(9): e45080. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0045080
  6. Lentini, P.E., Gibbons, P., Fischer, J., Law, B.S., Hanspach, J., Martin, T.G. (2012) Bats in a farming landscape benefit from linear remnants and unimproved pastures. PLoS ONE, 7, e48201. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0048201
  7. Lentini, P.E., Martin, T.G., Gibbons, P., Fischer, J., Cunningham, S.A. (2012) Supporting wild pollinators in a temperate agricultural landscape: maintaining mosaics of natural features and production. Biological Conservation 149:84-92
  8. Mantyka-Pringle, C., Martin, T.G., Rhodes, J.R. (2012) Interactions between climate and habitat loss effects on biodiversity: a systematic review and meta-analysis. Global Change Biology 18: 1239–1252 doi: 10.1111/j.1365-2486.2011.02593.x  Selected by Faculty of 1000
  9. Martin, T.G., Catterall, C.P., Manning, A., Szabo, J. (2012) Australian Birds in a Changing Landscape: 220 years of European colonization. In Fuller, R. (Ed) Birds and Their Habitats. Cambridge University Press. pp 453-480.
  10. Martin, T.G., Nally, S., Burbidge, A., Garnett, S.T., Harris, S., Hayward, M.W., Holdsworth, M., Lumsden. L.F., McDonald-Madden, E.*, Menkhorst, P., Possingham, H.P. (2012) Acting fast helps avoid extinction. Conservation Letters 5: 274-280. doi: 10.1111/j.1755-263X.2012.00239.x
  11. Martin, T.G., Burgman, M.A., Fidler, F., Kuhnert, P.M., Low-Choy, S., McBride, M., Mengersen, K. (2012) Eliciting expert knowledge in conservation science. Conservation Biology 26: 29-38 DOI: 10.1111/j.1523-1739.2011.01806.x
  12. Nicol, S. & Chadès, I. (2012) Which States Matter? An Application of an Intelligent Discretization Method to Solve a Continuous POMDP in Conservation Biology. PLoS ONE, 7, e28993.
  13. Pichancourt, J-B.*, Chadès, I., Firn, J., Van Klinken, R.D., Martin, T.G. (2012) Simple rules to contain invasive species with a complex life-cycle and high dispersal capacity. Journal of Applied Ecology 49:52-62. doi: 10.1111/j.1365-2664.2011.02093.x  (PDF)
  14. Pichancourt, J-B.*, van Klinken, R. (2012) Phenotypic plasticity Phenotypic plasticity influences the size, shape and dynamics of the geographic distribution of an invasive plant.PloS one7(2), e32323 (PDF)
  15. Poloczanska, E.S., Booth, T., Carter, W., Dekeyser, S., Roiko, A., Wang, X., Wong, W., Martin, T.G., 2012. iClimate, Final Report to the National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility. CSIRO, Australia
  16. Ponce-Reyes, R., Reynoso-Rosales, V.-H., Watson, J. E. M., VanDerWal, J., Fuller, R. A., Pressey, R. L., Possingham, H., (2012). Vulnerability of cloud forest reserves in Mexico to climate change. Nature Climate Change.2. 448-452 [doi: 10.1038/nclimate1453].


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